I am currently holding a small gold position, via the PowerShares DB Gold Double Long ETN (DGP). The government's actions are being perceived as highly inflationary. The evidence can already be witnessed by the drop in the dollar and the strength in commodities and currencies such as the yen and Swiss franc.
Gold is overbought here, but I'm not sure how much it will pull back from this level. I feel confident that gold prices will rise well above today's price, so I will be gradually building my position even on modest drops. I think the most informative view comes from the five-year chart for SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD):
GLD bounced off of support in the 73.00 area, and has risen to around 88.00 on huge volume. The long term uptrend has remained intact. As people gradually realize their dollars will be worth less in the future, there should be a rush into gold and other inflation hedges.
- CurrencyShares Swiss Franc Trust ETF (FXF): The two-year chart for the Swiss franc ETF is showing a similar pattern. I have no position here, but will look for a pullback to start some shares.
I am writing this just after the market open on Tuesday. Looking at yesterday's action, equities look likely to resume their rally sometime soon. Yesterday's drop was on relatively low volume, and I think natural given the huge move last Thursday and Friday. I am lightly invested here, and waiting for more charts to set up for either long or short trades. I have a few small short positions currently:
- Unibanco (UBB): The 112.00 are is very significant resistance. My only problem with shorting this stock here is the high volume of the bounce last week. However, the banking sector problems are not over, and Brazil's market looks weak as well.
- Smith International (SII): Many oil services names look like they are stalling. SII has several layers of overhead resistance, including a 50 day moving average that is ready to cross beneath the 200 day. Last week's move was on average volume.
updated Sep 23, 2008
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