Thursday, April 8, 2010: Issue #1234 Investors are totally preoccupied with a meaningless question right now: How long will this bull market last? Ignore them. Nobody can predict the future. Instead, I recommend you focus on one industry destined to dish out profits in the year ahead… no matter what. That’s a bold statement, for sure. And it’s even bolder when I tell you that the industry I’m talking about is one that most investors fear because of its volatility. It’s the semiconductor industry. Now, let me prove why it’s worthy of your attention…The Semiconductor Industry is Set For An Epic Rebound… Everybody knows the semiconductor industry is violently cyclical. That means during good times, semiconductor companies make a boatload of money. But at the first hint of bad times, fortunes can turn on a dime. And so do share prices. That’s exactly what unfolded through the global downturn. While the S&P 500 got sacked 37% in 2008, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (Yahoo: ^SOX) tanked 59%. But the bad times are behind us. An executive at the world’s largest chipmaker, Intel Corp (INTC), said we’re coming off “the worst recession the semiconductor industry has seen since its inception.” The stage is set for an epic rebound… Case in point: Last year, semiconductor sales dropped by 9.6%. But this year, sales are expected to surge by 19.9%, according to leading technology research firm, Gartner. iSuppli Corp. is also calling for a double-digit rebound. In dollar terms, we’re talking about a $45 billion swing! I challenge you to find a better opportunity elsewhere in the markets. And while that’s sure to prompt the skeptics in our midst to doubt that such a strong rebound is possible, I assure you that it’s not just possible… it’s imminent. For one simple reason…The Return of the Big (Corporate) Spender Everybody knows that corporations cut their spending to the bone in order to survive the past two years. But they can’t save their way to prosperity. Cutting costs is not a long-term growth strategy. Eventually, companies need to invest in future growth. And technology companies tend to be the first beneficiaries, as their products or services often increase efficiency and growth for customers. Again, the evidence backs this up here…
Bottom line: We’re coming off a period of extremely depressed corporate spending, particularly IT spending. And companies can’t be tightwads much longer.More Reasons Why Semiconductors Are Set to Surge The average corporate computer is a dinosaur, checking in at four to five years old. At that age they start to cost more to keep than replace. The only solution is to buy new ones. And the successful release of Microsoft’s Windows 7, plus new product launches from server and PC manufacturers, only makes the need to upgrade even greater. So any way you slice it, we’re long overdue for an upgrade cycle in Corporate America. That bodes well for semiconductor companies, which supply the guts for all these computers. I promise you this isn’t a guess about what’s going to happen. The situation is unfolding as we speak…
If Intel reports strong results next week, it will put investors on official notice that growth is back in the semiconductor industry. But if you wait until then, you’ll certainly miss out on profits. So the time to position your portfolio to profit is now. And how do we do that?Semiconductor Industry Small Caps… The last time a similar situation unfolded in the semiconductor industry – in the five years leading up to the dot-com bust – it propelled Intel from an itty-bitty $4 stock to a $75 behemoth. With a market cap of $124 billion, though, a repeat performance is completely impossible. But that won’t stop the “next Intels” – smaller, innovators in the space – from blasting off. Three such small-cap companies that top my list are:
Each company is an innovator, operating from a position of financial strength, and with little to no debt. Even better… all three are expected to increase their earnings by at least 80% (that’s not a typo) in the coming quarter. And that’s more than enough growth to propel these stocks higher, even if the current bull market peters out. Good investing, Louis BaseneseP.S: Of those three small-cap, semiconductor stocks that I mentioned, I have a definite favorite. Why? Well, first of all, it’s tapping into two multi-billion dollar technology trends at the same time. Second, it’s highly levered to corporate IT spending, with 60% of sales coming from the server and storage market. I expect the company’s shares to easily double from here. I just recommended the stock to White Cap Report subscribers – and you can find out which one it is, plus get all the other recommendations from myself, Marc Lichtenfeld and the rest of the team by signing up for a risk-free trial of the White Cap Report.
updated Apr 08, 2010
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