The FTSE [[^FTSE]] chart is turning bearish, but I suspect there's still room for a cheeky long trade. Meanwhile Euro Dollar support is crumbling.
I'll start on a note of caution; I reckon that most of the interesting charts are possibly in the early stages of changing, but with fairly large risks in either direction. We can bleat on about the Christmas effect, but not with any great knowledge of how that's going to pan out this year. Traditionally stocks rise in December through a mixture of hope for the New Year's prospects, and investment firms boosting the value of assets that they charge their year-end fees on. However, this year it would be quite logical for traders/ investors to lock in some of the fantastic gains made over the last 6-9 months, especially with the level of uncertainty surrounding next year's ‘recovery'. So there's a risk that markets see some large swings over the next 2-3 weeks.
FTSE Regulars will know how this year I've been banging on about how an upward crossover of the 21-day moving average has repeatedly led to the price hitting the upper Bollinger band. At the start of December the FTSE index did its regular party trick of bouncing back above the 21-day MAV, but this time the price failed to reach the upper band. This was all the more remarkable given that the Bolly bands had obligingly tightened.
Since then the 21-day moving average has been struggling to support the price and this morning the dam burst under the weight of negative credit rating headlines. This fall broke yesterday's low, but has so far found support at the 50-day MAV. This moving average did a reasonable job at the end of November and might do the trick again.
The Parabolic SAR is still committed to the uptrend, but both the RSI and MACD oscillators have given up the fight.
At some point I reckon it'll be worth going long for a re-test of the 21-day MAV, but I'll be looking for some reversal signs on my 30-minute chart first. There's a smashing hammer reversal candle at 12.30, but I'm looking for more confirmation, either with the 1 o'clock candle closing higher and/or a positive sign from my moving averages/ RSI.
The chart shows a good support and resistance line at 5200, but closer inspection reveals a lot of intra-day trips down to the 5150-60 area. That may not seem much, but it's enough red ink to spoil a poorly-timed long bet. So, if I don't get a good strong signal I'm not going to risk the long trade.
EURUSD The EuroDollar has dropped below a significant support level. Friday's Dollar strength saw an emphatic break of the trendline dating back to March's low, but many traders were still happy to back the euro so long as the $1.48 support held. This level gave way yesterday, but recovered its poise during the US session. However, the move higher lacked the conviction to re-test the trendline, and this morning saw a marked move lower, no doubt helped by the drop in Greece's credit rating.
What now? Well, with the usual caveats about Christmas liquidity and mischief makers, I reckon traders will look to test the next lines of support. As we approach the US session, the $1.47 line in the sand has held firm, but in the absence of a strong push higher this level looks vulnerable to a re-test.
The 21-day MAV has flipped to point lower, as have the RSI, MACD and Parabolic indicators. I know several of the big boys are looking to stay bullish so long as $1.4640-80 holds at the end of the week. A break lower should ensure a few nervous twitches, especially as we approach the end of the week.
updated Dec 08, 2009
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