During this year, we saw a sharp deterioration of conditions in financial markets. In a global economy that is based on complex connections between different markets, the absence of a solid financial system will bring inevitable setbacks in the growth of the real economy. In fact, the current market condition made the IMF forecast a sharp slowdown in the global economy for 2009, particularly in advanced economies, like US. As a result of this economical environment, the IMF predicts a slowdown of the U.S. economy from 1.6% in 2008 to 0.1% in 2009. The growth of the U.S. economy was supported in the first half by the contribution of net external demand and consumption, the result of the devaluation of the dollar and the tax checks sent to families.
The blurring of the effects of tax checks and reversing the trend of the dollar and the hard conditions of access to credit will lead to a sharp deceleration of the economy in coming quarters, and it is not ruled out the possibility of contraction. The beginning of the recovery of the real estate sector, although weak in the second half of 2009, should lead to a moderate recovery of the economy. We should keep in mind that the recovery of the economies after the crisis in the banking system is slower than the other crisis because the mechanism of monetary policy sometimes takes some time to become successful. As a matter of fact, the market might gain some fuel only during the second half of 2009 or even only in the start of 2010.
Chart courtesy of stockcharts ( click to enlarge )
General Electric (GE) - The stock failed to make headway on the upside after has broken the falling wedge. While the near-term trend appears positive, only a close above $20 would impart positive trend and would push the stock into a short-term bull trend.
First Solar (FSLR) - Looking at the daily chart the short-term outlook does not appear positive. A drop to $100-$102 appears likely. A close below $112 would confirm the short-term bearish outlook. Hold with a stop-loss at $111.81. Avoid fresh exposures until the stock closes above the resistance level at $134.22 ( 20-day moving average ).
P&G (PG) - As the near-term trend does not appear bullish, there is no reason to invest in this stock now. The trend would turn positive only a close above $64. Long positions may be considered on a daily close above this level, with a stop-loss at $59.41. Thechnically, the chart shows weak sign as the stock is below both 50 day and 200 day moving average. However KD shows possible rally as K line is on top over D line. Disclaimer: Trading stocks involves risk, this information should not be viewed as trading recommendations. The charts provided here are not meant for investment purposes and only serve as technical examples.
updated Oct 30, 2008
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