Those following gold may take note today of a fresh new low formed for 2008 in Gold and the GLD ETF (GLD). Such a development may have been unimaginable earlier in March or July but such a move has occurred. Let’s take a quick look:
GLD (Gold Trust tracking ETF):
I’ve drawn this chart starting in 2008 and compressed it to fit in the small window. The numerous ‘gaps’ are not actual gaps, but drawn by StockCharts due to how it records time of open and close - it’s better to follow the $GOLD symbol in StockCharts but I wanted to show this intraday development rather than waiting for the close ($GOLD is plotted on the close of the market day).
Today, GLD has fallen 2% to $75.00, which represents a fresh new low for the year.
I did also want to highlight prior momentum divergences in the ETF and ask the question, “Are we forming a positive momentum divergence currently?”
Price failed at the falling 20 period EMA on the recent retracement into August and is now making new lows as anticipated by the new momentum low and “Impulse Sell” trade set-up.
On the weekly chart (not shown), GLD had broken the moving average support provided by the 20 and 50 period EMAs. The 200 day SMA rests at roughly $63.00 per share, which is a good distance away. It might be surprising to trail all the way down to that level for a test of support.
With the recent strength in the US Dollar Index, commodities have clearly suffered. Gold is no exception, but keep your eyes on this commodity for any sign of developing strength or possible reversal should this positive momentum divergence play out and affect the price structure.
updated Sep 10, 2008
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